RETIREMENT · INCOME PLANNING

Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Determine a sustainable withdrawal rate for your retirement portfolio. See your annual and monthly income along with a historical success probability based on the Trinity Study framework.

LAST REVIEWED · APR 08, 2026 · BY A. CHEN, CFP®
You need
$40,000 /yr
Withdrawal DetailsReset
Portfolio value
$1,000,000
$100K$10M
Withdrawal rateAnnual % of portfolio
4%
2%8%
Years in retirement
30 yrs
1050
Stock allocationRest in bonds
60%
0%100%
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How the safe withdrawal rate calculator works

This calculator shows how much annual income your portfolio can sustain at a given withdrawal rate, along with a success probability — the historical likelihood that your money would have lasted through your entire retirement.

The 4% rule in context

William Bengen’s 1994 research found that a 4% initial withdrawal rate, adjusted for inflation annually, survived all 30-year periods in U.S. history. The Trinity Study confirmed this with a 95% success rate for 50/50 stock/bond portfolios.

Asset allocation matters

Too little in stocks and inflation erodes your purchasing power. Too much and a bad early sequence of returns can deplete the portfolio. Historical data suggests 50–75% stocks is the sweet spot for 30-year retirements.

Adjustable vs fixed withdrawal

The simplest approach is fixed: withdraw 4% in year one, then adjust for inflation. Guardrails strategies (cut spending after bad years, increase after good ones) can significantly improve success rates and often allow higher initial withdrawals.

Methodology. Annual income = portfolio × withdrawal rate. Success probability estimated from Trinity Study historical data, adjusted for time horizon (penalty for >30 years, bonus for <20 years) and stock allocation (optimal range 50–75%). Not a Monte Carlo simulation; uses simplified historical success rates.

Sources

  • Trinity Study (Cooley, Hubbard, Walz, 1998; updated 2011)
  • Bengen, W.P. (1994) — ‘Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data’
  • Kitces, M. (2012) — ‘Revisiting the 4% Rule’
  • Portfolio Visualizer — historical return data
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Frequently asked questions

Is 4% still safe? +
For 30-year retirements with 50%+ stocks, historical data supports 4%. For 40+ year retirements (early retirees), many advisors recommend 3.25–3.5% to add a safety margin.
What does the success probability mean? +
It’s the percentage of historical 30-year periods where the portfolio would not have been depleted. 95% means in 95 out of 100 historical scenarios, your money lasted.
Should I use nominal or real returns? +
The withdrawal rate already accounts for inflation in the Trinity Study framework. You withdraw 4% in year one, then increase the dollar amount by inflation each year.
How do I handle sequence of returns risk? +
The biggest risk to a fixed withdrawal strategy is a bear market in the first few years. Mitigations include keeping 2–3 years of cash, flexible spending rules, and maintaining a balanced allocation.
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